Not a week goes by...

until some some study comes along for a news source to confuse correlation with causation. I just wrote about emos and now it's mobile phones that are bad for teenagers:

...teens who made more than 15 phone calls and sent more than 15 text messages a day, slept poorly and had more careless lifestyles compared to those who made less than five of each per day.

Conducted by Sahlgren's Academy in Sweden using 21 teenagers...

Note it is only on 21 subjects. Not exactly a large sample size.

Now, as I said with my emo post, I wouldn't be surprised if it is the excessive use of the phone that is the cause of the lack of sleep. But, it could just as easily be the lack of sleep means they have nothing better to do than text their friends... You need to rule out this hypothesis before you know the direction of the cause. Otherwise you could be making the False Cause; Correlation Error. Perhaps the authors did this, but if so, the article does not make this clear.

What it does go on to say, after the quote above:

...the study found teenagers who made at least 15 calls and messages a day spent more time on computers and drank more caffeinated drinks and alcohol, had more irregular sleeping hours and found it more difficult to wake up and were more tired before midday.

And as you can see, we have uncontrolled variables. If we want to establish the mobile phone use as a causal mechanism for poor sleep, we'd need to rule out the other potential causes, e.g., the caffeine and booze. Perhaps they are addicted to caffeine (a drug) which keeps them up, which leads them to text and myspace, which keeps them mentally stimulated, which leads to more coffee or Red Bull, etc. A vicious circle or sorts, and another hypothesis.

To see the effect of the phone on its own, you'd need to control for these other variables. A simple experiment to set up. Perhaps the "natural" experiment has been done. Is there evidence of an increase in teen sleep deprivation (above and beyond better diagnoses) over the last 10-15 years?

Moreover, the article then goes on to relate this study to an unrelated one:

The second study, conducted by Fred Danner at the University of Kentucky on 882 Year 9 students, found teenagers who slept less than eight hours a night got worse grades and had a higher level of emotional disturbance and risk of ADHD.

The unstated claim is lack of sleep leads to worse grades. If this is the direction then I won't be surprised. But surely you have to get some students who were doing poorly to sleep more and see if their grades improve?

Note that by linking these two studies together, we now have the implication that using mobile phones leads to poor grades

I'll tell you what I would bet on. When questioned at length, I'd bet the authors of these studies would qualify these claims along the exact lines I have. The number one thing they'd say is more research needs to be done. In order to form any real position on claims in a field of current research it's best to take studies like this as interesting, but not conclusive. Wait and see where we are at in another ten years.

A problem with non-science journalists reporting science, is they don't often put qualifiers like this in the story. This can to lead to claims of Exaggerated Conflict from those wanting to dispute scientific claims. Think about climate science, or the reporting of stories on health and nutrition. Ben Goldacre writes about this very point in his Bad Science blog.

Spooked911 moon landings not faked after all! But there is a secret moon base!

Readers of this blog may remember a few posts I did in 2006 on 9-11 conspiracy nut "Spooked911". Well, I thought I'd check up on him. One other "proof" he offers, that 9-11 was faked and is a government conspiracy, is based around his "challenge" to prove it's possible to fly a Boeing 767 into a building with no prior flight training in one. From the anti-conspiracy blog Screw Loose Change:

1) Obtain the Microsoft Flight Simulator Software and install it.

2) Learn to fly a Cessna 172 prop plane (if you already are a pilot, you can skip this).

3) Download and install the Boeing 767 plug-in, and take-off from Boston Logan airport.

4) Navigate to Manhattan as fast and efficiently as possible, then accelerate to 540 mph-- and on your FIRST ATTEMPT, fly perfectly through the middle of lower Manhattan, where the WTC used to be.

5) Let me know if you succeed.

If you DO succeed, also try a run taking off from Washington Dulles with a Boeing 757, going west for an hour, then turn around, and navigate to the Pentagon and try the "Hani Hanjour maneuver" (a 270 degree turn at 500 mph, then level off and approach the Pentagon on a flat approach, only a few feet off the ground.

Yet more ingenious WTF? logic from Spooked911. As per usual, he is an inspiration. I decided it is fair game to apply his reasoning to the faked Apollo moon landings (again). I couldn't believe it. I managed to land on the moon!

This was my first attempt too. Imagine how good I'd be if I trained for all the years the astronauts had. So contrary to my first experiment on landing on the moon, I've now realised it is possible to land on the moon. After all, a computer simulation is just like real life!

I then discovered there is a secret base on the moon! There is a cover-up after all! The beings that set it up must be alien; they were gibbering at me in some form of "alienease".

As far as the base goes - bloody goofy aliens. How the hell is anyone going to live in that? There's no furniture or anything!

I did manage to communicate in the end however, though it was still mostly pointless gibbering:

I also discovered that although the astronauts claim to have driven on the moon, I couldn't navigate my way over or around even the smallest crater in this tank.

Perhaps the aliens were controlling my mind and making me crash? After all, I wasn't wearing my ice cream container...

So good

The Great Tantra Challenge

I wish someone would knock up an English translation, but you still get the gist of it. Hilarious.

Here's the story:

On 3 March 2008, in a popular TV show, Sanal Edamaruku, the president of Rationalist International, challenged India's most "powerful" tantrik (black magician) to demonstrate his powers on him. That was the beginning of an unprecedented experiment. After all his chanting of mantra (magic words) and ceremonies of tantra failed, the tantrik decided to kill Sanal Edamaruku with the "ultimate destruction ceremony" on live TV. Sanal Edamaruku agreed and sat in the altar of the black magic ritual. India TV observed skyrocketing viewership rates.

Everything started, when Uma Bharati (former chief minister of the state of Madhya Pradesh) accused her political opponents in a public statement of using tantrik powers to inflict damage upon her. In fact, within a few days, the unlucky lady had lost her favorite uncle, hit the door of her car against her head and found her legs covered with wounds and blisters. India TV, one of India's major Hindi channels with national outreach, invited Sanal Edamaruku for a discussion on "Tantrik power versus Science". Pandit Surinder Sharma, who claims to be the tantrik of top politicians and is well known from his TV shows, represented the other side. During the discussion, the tantrik showed a small human shape of wheat flour dough, laid a thread around it like a noose and tightened it. He claimed that he was able to kill any person he wanted within three minutes by using black magic. Sanal challenged him to try and kill him.

The tantrik tried. He chanted his mantras (magic words): "Om lingalingalinalinga, kilikili…." But his efforts did not show any impact on Sanal – not after three minutes, and not after five. The time was extended and extended again. The original discussion program should have ended here, but the "breaking news" of the ongoing great tantra challenge was overrunning all program schedules.

Part 1 - Not much happens - find it on youtube if you want to watch it.

Part 2

Now the tantrik changed his technique. He started sprinkling water on Sanal and brandishing a knife in front of him. Sometimes he moved the blade all over his body. Sanal did not flinch. Then he touched Sanal's head with his hand, rubbing and rumpling up his hair, pressing his forehead, laying his hand over his eyes, pressing his fingers against his temples. When he pressed harder and harder, Sanal reminded him that he was supposed to use black magic only, not forceful attacks to bring him down. The tantrik took a new run: water, knife, fingers, mantras. But Sanal kept looking very healthy and even amused. After nearly two hours, the anchor declared the tantrik's failure.

The tantrik, unwilling to admit defeat, tried the excuse [see special pleading] that a very strong god whom Sanal might be worshipping obviously protected him. "No, I am an atheist," said Sanal Edamaruku. Finally, the disgraced tantrik tried to save his face by claiming that there was a never-failing special black magic for ultimate destruction, which could, however, only been done at night. Bad luck again, he did not get away with this, but was challenged to prove his claim this very night in another "breaking news" live program.

Part 3

During the next three hours, India TV ran announcements for The Great Tantra Challenge that called several hundred million people to their TV sets. The encounter took place under the open night sky. The tantrik and his two assistants were kindling a fire and staring into the flames. Sanal was in good humour. Once the ultimate magic was invoked, there wouldn't be any way back, the tantrik warned. Within two minutes, Sanal would get crazy, and one minute later he would scream in pain and die. Didn't he want to save his life before it was too late? Sanal laughed, and the countdown begun. The tantriks chanted their "Om lingalingalingalinga, kilikilikili…." followed by ever changing cascades of strange words and sounds. The speed increased hysterically. They threw all kinds of magic ingredients into the flames that produced changing colours, crackling and fizzling sounds and white smoke.

While chanting, the tantrik came close to Sanal, moved his hands in front of him and touched him, but was called back by the anchor. After the earlier covert attempts of the tantrik to use force against Sanal, he was warned to keep distance and avoid touching Sanal. But the tantrik "forgot" this rule again and again. Now the tantrik wrote Sanal's name on a sheet of paper, tore it into small pieces, dipped them into a pot with boiling butter oil and threw them dramatically into the flames. Nothing happened. Singing and singing, he sprinkled water on Sanal, mopped a bunch of peacock feathers over his head, threw mustard seed into the fire and other outlandish things more. Sanal smiled, nothing happened, and time was running out. Only seven more minutes before midnight, the tantrik decided to use his ultimate weapon: the clod of wheat flour dough. He kneaded it and powdered it with mysterious ingredients, then asked Sanal to touch it. Sanal did so, and the grand magic finale begun. The tantrik pierced blunt nails on the dough, then cut it wildly with a knife and threw them into the fire. That moment, Sanal should have broken down. But he did not. He laughed. Forty more seconds, counted the anchor, twenty, ten, five… it's over!

Millions of people must have uttered a sigh of relief in front their TVs. Sanal was very much alive. Tantra power had miserably failed. Tantriks are creating such a scaring atmosphere that even people, who know that black magic has no base, can just break down out of fear, commented a scientist during the program. It needs enormous courage and confidence to challenge them by actually putting one's life at risk, he said. By doing so, Sanal Edamaruku has broken the spell, and has taken away much of the fear of those who witnessed his triumph.

In this night, one of the most dangerous and wide spread superstitions in India suffered a severe blow.
_______________________
All I can say is WTF? - do people actually believe this...?

Being mildly skeptical is good for your health

I'm not even talking about, you know, doing experiments or taking a course in logic. Just erring on the side of caution, just asking someone who makes a claim, what his or her evidence is.

Doing so could stop you doing something as stupid as this:

At least 50 people in Kottayam district have reportedly lost their vision after gazing at the sun looking for an image of Virgin Mary.

Even with a sign there, they still came:

Though alarmed health authorities have installed a signboard to counter the rumour that a solar image of Virgin Mary appeared to the believers, curious onlookers, including foreign travellers, have been thronging the venue of the 'miracle'.

Despite the injuries:

St Joseph's ENT and Eye Hospital in Kanjirappally alone has recorded 48 cases of vision loss due to photochemical burns on the retina.

It would be funny except it's real life and real people.

Astrology – it’s just harmless fun… right?

Not if you live in Burma:

When the junta moved the capital from Rangoon to a malarial town deep in the jungle, it did so because an astrologer warned Senior General Than Shwe of an impending catastrophe that could be averted only by shifting the seat of government.

General Ne Win was the mysticism-obsessed dictator who seized power in 1962 and steered Burma from prosperity to penury; in 1989 he introduced the 45-kyat and 90-kyat banknotes, simply because these were divisible by and added up to nine, his lucky number. He believed this move would also ensure he would live to the lucky age of 90.

Each of the leading clans in the junta has a family astrologer. The army has its own zodiacal experts, but it is a perilous job: astrologers who make negative predictions are liable for arrest and jail.

Gilbert Murray wrote: "The best seed ground for superstition is a society in which the fortunes of men seem to bear practically no relation to their merits or effort." In Burma, the good suffer and the oppressors flourish.

Barry Williams' Blog

Barry Williams, editor of the Skeptic Journal, has a blog at The Australian.

Well worth a look.

Paranormal Profile

Have a crack at this quiz I created: Paranormal Profile.

Are you a skeptic or a credulous buffoon?

Paranormal Profile Your Result: Skeptic You scored fifteen to thirty. You are a true skeptic. This doesn�t mean you don�t believe in anything at all, but rather, you simply require evidence for that belief. You have spent some time considering these claims and have found no endorsing evidence.
OMG!
Semi-Credulous
Credulous
Part-time skeptic
Paranormal Profile Quiz Created on GoToQuiz

Climate skeptics

Here’s a great example of what it means to be a humbug hunter. This comes from news.com.au and all the associated papers - Climate change 'a campaign of alarmism' by Denis Peters:

A CONCERTED and well-organised campaign has created alarm over human-induced climate change, industrial magnate Sir Arvi Parbo says... The former head of Western Mining Corporation, BHP and Alcoa Australia, is the keynote speaker at a gathering of climate change sceptics being hosted by Western Australian Liberal MP Dr Dennis Jensen, at Parliament House. It also is supported by the Lavoisier Group, an Australian organisation set up as a base for climate change sceptics...

Sir Arvi said he had kept an open mind through 20 years of listening to debate about climate change but was now witnessing a "semi-religious fervour" overshadowing it. "One must admire the skilful way in which the public has been led to believe that there is no longer any uncertainty, and that disastrous climate change caused by humans is imminent," he said. "The appointment of Mr Al Gore as adviser to the UK Government on climate change is a good example...

"His film, The Inconvenient Truth has been widely publicised, has been seen by, and has influenced millions of people around the world. "It has been severely criticised for deliberately and grossly exaggerating and distorting the issues and I understand that the recently published summary for policymakers by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change contradicts a number of Mr Gore's major contentions. "This, in contrast, has had virtually no publicity and no effect on the public."

...Greens climate change spokeswoman Senator Christine Milne later described the forum as "the last gasp of the Dad's Army of sceptics". "What they try to do is give the impression that climate change science is uncertain," she said. "They've been reasonably successful because they've been well funded, as with the tobacco industry before them. "Now this group of people is trying to extend the life of the fossil fuel industry. "They are backed by the coal industry and the oil industry." She said the Lavoisier Group was associated with the Liberal Party and right-wing bodies such as the HR Nicholls Society.

This is a good example of hunting humbug because I, like Milne, am not a climate change skeptic. As far as I can tell, the science behind anthropogenic climate change is quite conclusive. But as a "seeker after truth", I don't care about winning (blatant hypocrisy aside), I care about the quality of an argument.

So, though I might agree with her with regard to climate change, the arguments she uses to attempt to disparage the "Dad's Army of sceptics" are completely flawed and would suggest she is a deeply disturbed individual. In a few short sentences she finds the time to Poison the Well (associated with the Liberal Party and right-wing bodies) and Impugn Motives (trying to extend the life of the fossil fuel industry). These points may well be true, but they say nothing about the validity of the arguments forwarded by the skeptics. Much easier to spout some standard political ad hominem than address any of the actual points made by Parbo I suppose.

UFO cause by global warming! WTF?

Initially, when I read the following:

Officials are mystified after a mysterious metallic object crashed through the roof of a New Jersey home, although one expert said it could be a meteorite…

The object is the size of a golf ball but weighs as much as a can of soup, according to AP.

"I saw it's a UFO," said one neighbour.

Another believed it was connected to "some kind of global warming thing."

I thought that the most appropriate fallacy would be False Cause; Correlation Error, as the second neighbour attributed the UFO (the first neighbour is right, at this time it is an Unidentified Falling Object) to global warming. However, the False Cause; Correlation Error requires the erroneous belief that there is a causal link between phenomena to be apparent. The only thing apparent in this case is that the claim that a UFO is caused by global warming is simply moronic. It puts the "M" in stupid. Hence my classification of the above claim as a WTF? Fallacy instead.
____________
Via: Tim Blair

Source: Mysterious object crashes into New Jersey home - news.sympatico.msn.ctv.ca - 5 Jan 2007

The 51st skeptics' circle is up

I'll See You at Enceladus.

Ass clown argues astrologer ass clowns are actually scientists

The following text comes from a letter to the editor, published in today's Age, by first rate idiot Phillip Jensen of St Andrews Beach:

The various forms of astrology are evolving disciplines that constitute millennia of observation, recording, hypotheses and proofs through experimentation, incorporating differing opinions based on an accepted knowledge base. This sounds like science to me.

The reason why it sounds like science, Phillip, is because you are misappropriating scientific terms. Either you are deliberately creating a False Analogy or, more than likely, you are just an ass clown*. I wonder if Phillip can point me in the direction of an astrological hypothesis or "proof" which has been verified by experimentation?

I've written about the difference between science and pseudo science before:

A scientific theory is a concise and coherent set of concepts, claims and laws (frequently expressed mathematically) that can be used to precisely and accurately explain and predict natural phenomena.

A theory should include a mechanism that explains how its concepts, claims, and laws arise from lower-level theories.

Astrology fails these criteria miserably. Its very nature is to work in wishy-washy generalisations. This is the antipathy of science, which requires concise and coherent predictions and explanations for natural phenomena. And as to providing some kind of plausible mechanism...?

At the beginning of his letter, the ass clown claims that:

Astrological "readings" are symbolic personality and life path delineations that verify things we already know about ourselves as well as effectively making the unconscious conscious.

Well, just how good are astrologers?

The scientific community, where it has commented, claims that astrology has repeatedly failed to demonstrate its effectiveness in numerous controlled studies. Effect size studies in astrology conclude that the mean accuracy of astrological predictions is no greater than what is expected by chance, and astrology's perceived performance has disappeared on critical inspection. When tested against personality tests, astrologers have shown a consistent lack of agreement with these tests. One such double-blind study in which astrologers attempted to match birth charts with results of a personality test, which was published in the reputable peer-reviewed scientific journal Nature, claimed to refute astrologers' assertions that they can solve clients' personal problems by reading individuals' natal charts. The study concluded that astrologers had no special ability to interpret personality from astrological readings. Another study that used a personality test and a questionnaire contended that some astrologers failed to predict objective facts about people or agree with each other's interpretations.

Another bunch of ass clowns.

______________
* One whose stupidity and/or ineptitude exceeds the descriptive potential of both the terms ass and clown in isolation, and in so doing demands to be referred to as the conjugate of the two. (Ref: Urban Dictionary.)

Source: Astrology is not only star gazing - The Age - 24 Dec 2006 - Letters

Tags: Skepticism, False Analogy, Astrology, Fallacy

Carl Sagan (Pseudo) Memorial / Demon Haunted World (Pseudo) Homage / [50th] Skeptics' Circle

As was suggested over at Pharyngula, the 20th of December is the tenth anniversary of Carl Sagan's death, and it is fitting that this great skeptic is given a bit of a tribute here. Though it seems that many bloggers are doing the same. For this circle I decided to re-read one of the most formative books of my intellectual life, Sagan's The Demon Haunted World - Science as a Candle in the Dark. It is fair to say it had a direct influence on the eventuation of Humbug! and Humbugonline.

With these two things in mind, I though it best to classify posts in a similar fashion to some of the chapters of The Demon Haunted World - a semi homage to the book. (Wherever an appropriately related link from another blog wasn't submitted, or I couldn't find something searching for myself, or simply because I could, I've been completely shameless and linked to one of my old posts.) I've called it a pseudo memorial/homage because, well, like a pseudo science at first it might seem like a reasonable alternative to a real memorial/homage, but once you delve a bit deeper you'll discover it's a bit of a sham. Still, the facade will make you feel good for a while and unlike most pseudo sciences, this pseudo memorial/homage won't cost you a penny.


Carl Sagan (Pseudo) Memorial / Demon Haunted World (Pseudo) Homage / [50th] Skeptics' Circle

Preface - My Teachers:
Sagan begins his book with a tribute of his own, to his teachers. Unfortunately, as is not an uncommon experience, many were less than inspiring. No one kills an interest in science better than a science teacher (ahem..). For Sagan, this all changed in college. He learned science from a historical perspective (something that I think is of upmost importance for a well-rounded and interesting science course) and as an integral part of all human knowledge. As he says: "It was considered unthinkable for an aspiring physicist to not know Plato, Aristotle, Bach, Shakespeare, Gibbon, Malinowski and Freud - among many others."

As a science teacher myself, on occasion I attempt to inspire (at the very least I usually get a laugh). Though it's not specifically stated in the syllabus, teaching skepticism is also something I do. My Friday the 13th "experiments" on myself do both.

Chapters 1 & 2 - The Most Precious Thing & Science and Hope:
Sagan begins the book in earnest with his defence of science. In particular the distinction between science and pseudo science (something I've discussed here), how science helps us avoid being fooled into believing something that isn't true and teaches us how to think.

However, don't confuse Sagan's love of science with "Scientism" as D. N Menton has. Carl (rhymes with 'Sagan') Feagans sets Menton straight over at a Hot Cup of Joe.

One of the most memorable passages from chapter one points out the success of science based medicine:

We can pray over the cholera victim, or we can give her 500 milligrams of tetracycline every twelve hours… We can try nearly futile psychoanalytic talk therapy on the schizophrenic patient, or we can give him 300 to 500 milligrams a day of chlozapine...

On a similar note, at Respectful Insolence Orac points out that: "… there is a growing movement that insists that doctors should ask you about your spiritual life and make religious practices a part of medicine…"

My co-blogger, Jef, just last week found that not all doctors follow such wishy-washy rubbish.

Feeling a bit ill (or not)? Save some money and diagnose yourself with EoR's Woo World Self Treater "...which brings the finest and latest alternative therapies to one location and enables you to deal with your health concerns without the oppressive Big Pharma run Western Medical Establishment trying to kill you."

I tried it and, speaking from anecdote, it's brilliant. To protect my privacy I'll only give you a part of my diagnosis:

Quantum-consciousness analysis of your auric field shows you are suffering the symptoms of toxin overload, which is commonly seen among males born under the sign of Virgo. Swimming with dolphins has been shown to be effective in relieving the symptoms of toxin overload and allowing the body to heal itself. You can also boost your immune levels by remembering to deeply consider where you are, and commence colonic irrigations to remove toxins.

Chapter 3 - The Man in the Moon and the Face on Mars:
One of the main themes of The Demon Haunted World is intelligent alien life and the pseudo scientific claims for it. One of the claims Sagan begins with is the "face" on Mars. John Wilkins at Evolving Thoughts wrote about new images of the "face" in September.

Chapters 4 & 5 - Aliens & Spoofing and Secrecy:
Sagan continues looking at such claims, moving onto alien abduction and government cover-ups and conspiracies.

This is of particular interest to us here at Humbugonline. Ever since Jef admitted to travelling with aliens in a UFO, I've been defending myself from alien mind control. Further to this, I've conducted an experiment which proves, beyond a shadow of a doubt, that it's not possible to land on the moon, and then Jef found this photo to top it off!

Chapter 10 - The Dragon in My Garage:
Sandy Szwarc at Junk Foodscience points out that some medical professionals simply think homeopathy is harmless fun. However, that's not the case. As the post says, it is costly, misleading and potentially harmful. More than that, it's simply a pseudo science:

Homeopathic followers often assert that these preparations defy modern testing or that there have been few tests on them. Both are false.

“Many providers of complementary and alternative medicine are convinced that their therapy defies the ‘straightjacket’ of reductionist research,” said a recent panel report from the Conference on Complementary and Alternative Medicine Research Methodology, National Institutes of Health. Supporters argue that alternative modalities are individualized, holistic, intuitive, etc, and call for a ‘paradigm shift’ in research.” However, the Panel concluded that these arguments are based on a series of misunderstandings and concerns can be resolved by properly designing the research, and that “if the aim is to test the effectiveness of complementary and alternative medicine, randomized controlled trials usually provide the least biased method for finding a reliable answer.”

Sandy's point could be straight out of The Demon Haunted World. Indeed, the late John Mack (a psychiatrist "…considered to be a leading authority on the spiritual or transformational effects of alleged alien encounter experiences"), as quoted by Sagan, could have been mistaken for a homeopath:

There are phenomena important enough to warrant serious research, and the metaphysics of the dominant Western scientific paradigm may be inadequate fully to support this research.

For more on the dragon, head over to Rockstars' Ramblings, where Bronze Dog pays homage to The Dragon in the Garage in the Carl Sagan Edition of the "Doggerel".

Chapter 12 - The Fine Art of Baloney Detection:
I consider this to be the most useful and important chapter of the book. All humans should learn how to detect baloney. Before I knew what a fallacy was I could still smell a bad argument. But knowing the various types of fallacies allows one to classify them. Sagan's baloney detection kit, made up of thinking techniques such as spinning another hypothesis and fallacies, is invaluable. Thankyou Carl.

At Rockstars' Ramblings, Bronze Dog takes a look at a misunderstanding of the ad hominem fallacy and points out that the quality of an argument is independent from the "hatefulness" of the arguer.

As a great example of baloney detection in action, you can't go past Bob Carroll of the Skeptic Dictionary. Bob unpacks his kit and uses it to expose the humbug filled arguments of an op-ed piece which claims that Two Mommies is One Two Many.

Chapter 14 - Antiscience:
Infophile at Rockstars' Ramblings, explains Quantum Mechanics. More importantly, how woos attempt to justify their claims using QM:

The logic the woos use to defend their claims boils down to asking how, if scientists don’t understand Quantum Mechanics, they can claim the woos are wrong about it? It’s simple, really. Scientists are confused about what causes all of this, not what can happen. The possible events in QM are all well-defined, and the calculations of probabilities are done deterministically.

This is the exact same conclusion Sagan reaches:

So how is a shamanistic or theological or New Age doctrine different from quantum mechanics? The answer is that even if we cannot understand it, we can verify that it works... the predictions of quantum mechanics are strikingly, and to high accuracy, confirmed.

But the shaman tells us that his doctrine is true because it too works - not on arcane matters of mathematical physics but on what really counts: he can cure people. Very well, then, let's accumulate the statistics on shamanistic cures...

Chapter 15 - Newton's Sleep:
Big Heathen Mike at Mike's Weekly Skeptic Rant has a personal story to tell; how his lack of religion and his understanding of statistical probability allows him to deal with stress. What? Me worry?

This chapter on science and religion helped shape some of my own views. How can the two be reconciled? I've thought about this a great deal since reading The Demon Haunted World.

Chapter 19 - No Such Thing as a Dumb Question:
In this chapter Sagan laments the poor showing of US students in science and mathematics test scores compared to other western nations. He talks about the lack of scientific literacy amongst the general public, and the offence that evolution causes many people. One of the particular oddities of the United States is the Creationism/Evolution "debate". It's an oddity as it doesn't register on the radar here in Australia (or in the UK - where I taught for 1 & 1/2 years). As Sagan pointed out, when Americans were asked merely if they accept evolution, 45% said yes, whereas it was 70% in China. This is in the early 1990s - so things might be better by now? Well, maybe not. Especially if all the kiddies are wasting time playing Left Behind: Eternal Forces. It is simply Creationism in Video Game Form, as pointed out by Lord Runolfr.

OT - on the rare occasion I play a video game I go for Stick Cricket; far more wholesome than end of the world violence. (For the yanks, cricket is like baseball except it [test cricket] goes for 5 days and is more difficult. Australia is the best side in the world by far, and we are currently in the middle of giving the English a pasting. Don't worry though, they're used to it.)

Chapter 23 - Maxwell and the Nerds:
In one of the final chapters of The Demon Haunted World, Sagan looks at the sociology of science and the need for intellectual freedom. He begins the chapter by discussing the flaws of stereotyping, and points out that even if a stereotype is valid on average (say, men are taller than women) it is not going to hold for all individual cases (some women are taller than some men). One of the most detrimental stereotypes to the progress of science is that woman can't do it. I'm in no position to say whether this stereotype holds true for women in the professional arena today, but I can say that this perception is not one held by the many students I teach (and have taught), my colleagues, let alone the brilliant women who I went to university with.

That being said, the most common stereotype I have thrown at me by my students is that I'm a "nerd" because I teach science and mathematics. They usually ask me if I was in the "Chess Club" at school. I'll tell them to stop being silly, I played Bridge at school (jokes). Though these questions are in the form of a good-natured ribbing (they get a detention anyway… I love power!), they are quite revealing. Stereotypes abound and it is up to us to show them for what they are (I make sure to wear really cool sunglasses and a baseball cap; I don't walk, I strut).

Tara, at Aetiology, has dealt with similar stereotypes. She asks a series of rhetorical questions and gives examples of the "hot chick" stereotype. The argument goes something like this. "Hot chicks" don't like science fiction (and/or are no good at science). If you like science fiction (and/or are good at science) you are smart. Therefore, if you are a hot chick, you mustn't be smart.

I agree that it's a ridiculous stereotype, but I can't bring myself to feel too sorry for a smart hot chick... (except for my wife - she has to put up with me).
_____________________________

That's the end of my pseudo homage to The Demon Haunted World. If you haven't read the book, you must. In fact, it is one of my few "must reads". Do so now... Go!

Finally, to end this Circle, Orac has posted Three things about Carl Sagan. A great post to end the tribute to Carl with.

The 51st Skeptics' Circle is to be hosted by See You at Enceladus - January 4, 2007. Have a great Christmas and New Year.

____________________

Tags: Skepticism

WTF? Fallacy of the year

If there's a stronger case than this for creating the WTF? Fallacy, then I'd like to hear of it. This has been getting much attention from bloggers of late. Supposedly this "experiment" demonstrates that a jet-fuelled fire couldn't have caused the world trade centre towers to collapse.

Spooked911, the poster, though an ingenious experimentalist, is not quite so proficient WRT the scientific report genre (though he claims he's a molecular biologist!). I'll help him out by using his text but following a format loosely based on what I get 12 year olds to do:

Aim

I set up the following experiment using steel rabbit fencing as the steel structure supporting a heavy cement block. If kerosene/jet fuel/hydrocarbon fires can indeed cause steel structures to collapse, it should be quite simple to show this in an experiment-- right?

Hypothesis

That a fairly flimsy steel structure will not distort and bend and collapse very easily from a simple hydrocarbon fire.

Method

1. Note, this fencing is easily bendable, has no significant rigidity, and was not reinforced in any way.
2. The fencing was bent into an outer square and an inner rectangle (the core)…
   
3. Then I damaged the "columns" by cutting them with wire cutters.
   
4. Just inside where the gash was made in the outer wall, I placed a cup of kerosene (jet fuel), and there was newspaper around the bottom on the structure.
   
5. Then I put a heavy cement block on top, weighing about 15 pounds.
   
6. I don't think the wire structure would hold more than three of these blocks, so the "safety factor" was not particularly high.
   
7. Then I tipped over the cup and lit the kerosene.

Results

Then fire burned for about twenty minutes, and toward the end, I put my foot on the structure to see if it would extra weight. It still did. The structure held up fine after the fire died…. After the fire was hot, the "columns" were not hot at all… [see picture - he can touch it].

Discussion and Conclusion

In a second experiment, I used the same wire fence and block set up, but increased the amount of "airplane damage", added in newspaper all around the inside of the structure, and soaked everything thoroughly with kerosene. In this expt, the fire was more intense and lasted significantly longer, but... the structure held up just fine.

What I conclude is that a fairly flimsy steel structure does not distort and bend and collapse very easily from a simple hydrocarbon fire. And thus, it is not clear why the much stronger steel columns in the WTC towers weakened so much from fires that the towers underwent global collapse.

Spooked911 - Response to criticism

It's a simple model to shed light on a complex system. Scientists do this sort of thing all the time. It's their bread and butter. I did not draw any elaborate conclusions. I did not say this proved anything. Moreover, I invited people to try their own experiment, and as far as I can tell, no one has. I think it's sad that this has become the subject of such ridicule. Moreover, note I said nothing political here, nothing about Bush. It's just an experiment that I thought was interesting and worth sharing. I am indeed a biomedical scientist-- a molecular biologist, not an engineer. But I have friend who is an engineer who thought what I did was cool.

You sure your "friend" isn't your mum (that's "mom" for you "seppos")? He goes on to defend himself against accusations that he is a "crankpot" [the spawn of Mr Crank and Miss Crackpot!]:

…what's funny to me is how they point to this experiment as primary evidence that I'm a kook or crankpot-- but not to posts where I say the 2nd hit videos were faked, no plane hit the WTC. Why does THIS post amuse them so? It is just because it is easy to look at the pictures as opposed to, say, reading and thinking critically?

I fell off my chair when I read that.

Overall Grade* = C-

Update - see how I "prove" the moon landings were faked using similar experimental techniques.

Update 2 - I didn't know it at the time (as I hadn't thought of it yet), but Spooked911 gives us an excellent example of the GIGO fallacy. He makes this conclusion based on his garbage experiment:

What I conclude is that a fairly flimsy steel structure does not distort and bend and collapse very easily from a simple hydrocarbon fire. And thus, it is not clear why the much stronger steel columns in the WTC towers weakened so much from fires that the towers underwent global collapse.
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*I'm hardly going to fail him am I! I'd like to avoid his irate and "eccentric" parents.

Tagged - Conspiracy Theory, 9-11, Fallacy, Skepticism.